229,000 excess deaths: the cost of US-UK trade deal? - The Latest
The NHS will divert billions of pounds from essential services to pay for new medicines, under the terms of the US-UK trade deal agreed in December, which could lead to more than 2
By The Guardian
A new pharmaceutical trade deal between the United Kingdom and the United States, agreed last December, is projected to cause 229,000 excess deaths in England by 2036 as billions of pounds are diverted from essential NHS services to pay for new medicines. The study, conducted by researchers at the University of York, the University of Liverpool, and Christchurch Hospital in New Zealand and published in the British Medical Journal, found that £44.7 billion will have to be stripped from health services by 2036 to fund the deal.
This massive financial reallocation means the NHS will be forced to cut back on critical care, leading to a direct and severe impact on population health, particularly for patients suffering from cardiovascular, respiratory, gastrointestinal, and cancer conditions. Ministers have defended the agreement as a strategic move to help British drug exports avoid US tariffs while ensuring patients gain access to vital medication, yet critics argue the Labour government has capitulated to pressure from Donald Trump.
The research highlights that the commitment to spend significantly more on new branded medicines over the next decade, without any corresponding increase in NHS funding, creates substantial opportunity costs that will directly harm public health outcomes. In February, Vallance disclosed that the funding for this increased spending would come from the Department of Health and Social Care, which funds the NHS in England, rather than from the Treasury, effectively forcing the health service to find the money internally.
By 2036, the annual cost of the deal is expected to rise to an extra £8.8 billion, or about £170 million a week, adding up to a total of £44.7 billion over the course of the agreement. The report further warns that the costs are even higher if the impact on publicly funded adult social care is considered, as every £1 billion the NHS must find to fund this deal will increase the costs of adult social care by £118 million due to rises in morbidity and mortality.
If these indirect effects on adult social care are included, the projected number of excess deaths could climb to 291,000, a figure that surpasses the 137,000 deaths recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic between March 2020 and June 2022. One member of the British Parliament has called on the Labour government to defend the National Health Service "with everything we have and firmly stand up to the bully in the White House" following the publication of these alarming findings.
The study explicitly states that reduced NHS spending on services will have an adverse effect on the nation's public health, causing the projected 229,000 excess deaths by 2036. The analysis reveals that the deal requires the UK to buy more medicines from the US, which takes money away from other parts of the NHS with deadly consequences.
Columnist Aditya Chakrabortty, speaking to Lucy Hough, has highlighted the extent of the impact on the NHS of placating Donald Trump over the price of drugs, noting that the deal could result in 229,000 excess deaths in England. The controversy centers on the fact that the deal involves all new branded medicines, not just American ones, yet the financial burden is placed entirely on the UK health system without additional funding.
The research predicts that the greatest number of deaths will occur among the most vulnerable patient groups, underscoring the human cost of the trade agreement. The findings have sparked intense debate about the future of the NHS and the priorities of the current government, with many questioning whether the economic benefits of avoiding US tariffs justify the potential loss of nearly a quarter of a million lives.
The study serves as a stark warning that the current trajectory of the UK-US pharmaceutical trade deal is likely to result in a catastrophic decline in public health, driven by the systematic stripping of funding from the health service. As the financial pressures mount, the NHS faces the prospect of being unable to provide essential care, leading to a rise in preventable deaths that could reshape the health landscape of the country for decades.