Heathrow third runway could shift thousands of aviation jobs from UK regions, analysis suggests
The proposed expansion of Heathrow Airport could reduce passenger numbers at regional airports and shift thousands of aviation jobs towards London, according to analysis of Departm
By The Guardian
New Government modelling suggests expanding Heathrow Airport with a third runway could draw passengers and aviation jobs away from regional airports, prompting fresh debate over the project’s economic impact across the UK.
The assessment, published by the Department for Transport on 30 June, estimates that several airports in England and Wales would lose passengers if Heathrow’s expansion goes ahead. Birmingham Airport is forecast to be among the most affected, with passenger numbers projected to fall by around 7.5 million a year by 2050, a reduction associated with an estimated 9,500 jobs at the airport and across its supply chain.
The figures have been highlighted by the New Economics Foundation (NEF), which analysed the Department for Transport’s modelling. The think tank estimates that by 2050 around 15,200 aviation jobs that might otherwise have been created at regional airports, together with 6,400 jobs at other London and south-east airports, would instead be concentrated at Heathrow.
Supporters of the expansion dispute that conclusion. The Government says the modelling does not capture all of the wider economic benefits expected from the project, including the potential creation of more than 60,000 local jobs and an estimated £2.6 billion boost to the economy, with around 40% of those benefits projected to be felt outside London and the South East.
The Department for Transport’s wider economic assessment also indicates that the overall increase in UK GDP from the expansion could be relatively modest, estimating an uplift of up to 0.05% a year. That finding has been cited by both supporters and critics as the debate over Heathrow’s long-term economic case continues.
The current proposal would see a new 3,500-metre runway built to the north-west of the existing airport, crossing the M25 motorway. Heathrow has estimated the project would cost around £33 billion and increase annual flight capacity from approximately 480,000 to 756,000 aircraft movements.
The Government is currently consulting on the proposed Heathrow Expansion National Policy Statement, which would provide the planning framework for a third runway. The consultation runs until 1 September 2026, after which responses will be considered before Parliament decides whether to approve the policy framework. Any runway would still require a separate planning application and development consent before construction could begin.