Sir John Curtice: The "Burnham bounce" is real but it's not massive
The governing party's poll ratings have improved but they're only just ahead of Reform
By BBC News
Sir John Curtice says Labour has had a “Burnham bounce”, but the rise is not dramatic and the party is only narrowly ahead of Reform in the latest polling.
The BBC report says opinion polls since Andy Burnham became Labour leader show the party’s rating has improved, reaching the mid-20s after standing at 19% in late June when Sir Keir Starmer said he was standing down. It says this is Labour’s highest standing since the start of last year.
Curtice’s analysis, as reported by the BBC, is that the main source of the improvement has been Labour winning back support from the Greens and the Liberal Democrats rather than making a big breakthrough elsewhere.
The report also says Reform has slipped from the top position in the polls, but that its fall appears to be linked more to internal problems than to Labour’s recent rise. It says Reform is still only narrowly behind Labour, so Burnham has a long way to go before the party can feel confident about a general election.
The BBC report adds that 67% of people who voted Labour in 2024 now say they would vote for the party again, compared with 57% when Sir Keir indicated he was leaving Downing Street.