Labour urged to plug predicted £400m shortfall in overseas aid funding in 2027
Official forecast indicates shortfall below 0.3% of national income in promised official development assistance The UK is on course to miss its target of spending 0.3% of national
By The Guardian
Labour has been urged to provide an additional £400m for overseas aid after analysis indicated the UK could miss its 2027 spending target.
The Center for Global Development (CGD) said planned official development assistance could fall below the Government’s target of 0.3% of gross national income (GNI).
Its central forecast puts the shortfall at about £410m, with aid spending reaching just under 0.29% of GNI. The estimate is based on the Treasury’s comparison of independent economic forecasts.
CGD said the projected gap was linked to expectations that nominal national income will be higher than the figure used when the Government set its spending plans. Because the target is calculated as a share of GNI, a larger economy would require additional funding to reach 0.3%.
The organisation’s forecasts suggest the shortfall could range from £250m to £580m, depending on economic growth. Under the highest-growth scenario, aid spending would amount to about 0.28% of GNI.
CGD has called for extra money to be set aside in the Budget. It said an additional £400m would be enough to halve planned cuts affecting aid programmes in Africa.
The 0.3% target for 2027 is already below the 0.7% aid commitment previously set out by Labour. The Government announced the reduction as part of plans to increase defence spending.
The central estimate remains a projection by CGD rather than a Government forecast. An updated Office for Budget Responsibility forecast was expected ahead of the Budget.